Headwaters Advisory Group

To Founder-owned businesses From Headwaters Advisory Group Re Know your number - before someone tells you

You built something real. Do you know what it's worth?

Your accountant does your taxes. Your lawyer does your contracts. But nobody has shown you what a buyer would actually pay for your business - or why they'd discount it.

We bring investment banking methodology to businesses that are too small for Wall Street but too valuable for guesswork. The goal isn't to sell tomorrow. It's to have options.

Karl Keseris
Principal, Headwaters Advisory Group
Discover Your Options →
Investment Banking Methodology Founder-owned businesses $2B+ in Transactions Valuation & Exit Readiness Confidential Process Optionality, Not Pressure $2M - $20M Revenue Know What You've Built Investment Banking Methodology Founder-owned businesses $2B+ in Transactions Valuation & Exit Readiness Confidential Process Optionality, Not Pressure $2M - $20M Revenue Know What You've Built
80% of your net worth is locked in your business. And no one's told you what it's worth.
Most owners have never seen what a buyer would actually pay. When they finally go to market, 70-80% fail to close. The ones who do sell often walk away wishing they'd prepared.
50%+
of business exits are involuntary
Health, divorce, partner disputes, economic downturns
Source: Exit Planning Institute, State of Owner Readiness Report
70-80%
of businesses that go to market fail to sell
Only 20-30% of listed businesses successfully close a deal
Source: SCORE / U.S. Small Business Administration
Only 27%
of business owners have completed a formal valuation
Despite over half planning to exit within five years
Source: Exit Planning Institute, Generational State of Owner Readiness, 2025
Investment banking rigor. Built for the businesses Wall Street ignores.
We don't list your business on a marketplace and hope for the best. We build the materials, models, and insights that sophisticated buyers expect - and that give you leverage in any discussion.
Financial Model

3-Statement Financial Model

Your historical performance and realistic projections, built into an integrated income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow. The same model we'd build for a nine-figure deal. This is the foundation for any serious conversation with a buyer or investor.

Valuation

Valuation Analysis

What your business is worth - triangulated across four methodologies: discounted cash flow analysis, leveraged buyout modeling (where applicable), public comparables analysis, and precedent transaction benchmarking. Not a rule of thumb. Not what your buddy sold for. A defensible range you can stand behind in any negotiation.

CIM

Confidential Information Memorandum

The 30+ page document that answers every question a buyer asks before making an offer. Your business, your market, your financials, your growth plan - all in one place, professionally prepared to institutional standards.

Risk

Risk Register

What a buyer will find in due diligence - and how to address it before you get there. Owner dependency, revenue concentration, customer churn, key-person risk, contract gaps. No surprises at the table.

Deal Scenarios

Deal Structure Scenarios

What an actual transaction looks like based on your objectives and current market dynamics. Full sale, owner transition, recapitalization, partner buyout, growth capital raise. So you understand every path and what each one means for you financially.

Retention

Cohort Analysis & Retention Diagnostic

For businesses where customers come back - subscriptions, repeat purchases, service contracts. Customer lifetime value, LTV/CAC ratios, churn patterns, and revenue quality analysis. These are the numbers buyers use to decide what they'll pay.

Full Package

Investor-Ready in 30 Days

Everything an investment bank would prepare. You walk away knowing exactly what you have, what it's worth, and every path available to you - whether that's a full sale, an owner transition, a recapitalization, a partner buyout, or simply the confidence that comes from knowing where you stand.

3-Statement Financial Model Valuation Analysis Confidential Information Memorandum Risk Register Deal Structure Scenarios Cohort & Retention Diagnostic Quality of Earnings Analysis Gap Analysis & Value Roadmap
Five weeks. Complete clarity.
A structured, confidential engagement that takes you from "I don't know what this is worth" to "I know exactly where I stand."
1
Week 1
Discovery & Data Collection
We map your business: financials, operations, customer data, ownership structure, and competitive position. We identify what we're working with and where the gaps are.
Data Room Setup Information Request List Gap Assessment Industry Benchmarks Competitive Landscape
2
Week 2
Cohort Analysis & Unit Economics
Deep dive into customer behavior: retention curves, LTV, acquisition costs, revenue quality. Framed through an investment banking lens - what would a buyer think of these numbers?
Retention Matrix RFM Segmentation LTV/CAC Analysis Churn Risk Scoring
3
Week 3
Financial Model & EBITDA Normalization
Build the 3-statement model. Normalize earnings. Separate recurring from one-time. Identify adjustments a buyer would make - before they make them.
3-Statement Model EBITDA Normalization Revenue Quality Analysis Adjustment Schedule Pro Forma Projections
4
Week 4
Valuation & Risk Assessment
What your business is worth today - triangulated across four methodologies: discounted cash flow analysis, leveraged buyout modeling, public comparables analysis, and precedent transaction benchmarking. Plus a separate buyer adjustment analysis - what buyers would penalize and how to neutralize each risk before going to market.
DCF Analysis LBO Model Public Comparables Precedent Transactions Risk Register Buyer Adjustment Analysis
5
Week 5
Gap Analysis & Final Deliverables
Where you are today vs. where you could be. A clear roadmap with dollar values: what each improvement is worth in enterprise value, and how long it takes to get there.
CIM Draft Value Creation Roadmap Deal Structure Scenarios Readiness Scorecard
Three verticals. Institutional-grade.
We serve founder-owned, bootstrapped businesses between $2M and $20M in revenue - the gap between business brokers and investment banks.
Ecommerce & DTC

Consumer Brands & Online Retail

Shopify stores, subscription boxes, CPG brands, Amazon sellers. We diagnose CAC pressure, retention mechanics, and the unit economics that determine what buyers will pay.

SaaS

Bootstrapped Software

Recurring revenue businesses without VC backing. We translate your MRR, churn, and expansion metrics into the language buyers and lenders speak.

Main Street

Manufacturing, Trades & Services

HVAC, distribution, construction, industrial services, healthcare. We help owner-operators understand what a buyer would actually pay - and what's quietly eroding that number today.

Investment banking methodology. Built for founders.

Headwaters Advisory Group was founded by Karl Keseris after 5+ years in investment banking at Canaccord Genuity, where he executed $2B+ in transactions and raised $500M+ for clients.

The problem was obvious: the businesses that need financial sophistication most - founder-owned companies between $2M and $20M - can't access it. Investment banks won't touch deals below $50M. Business brokers don't build models or CIMs. The gap is massive.

Headwaters closes that gap. We combine institutional-grade methodology with the understanding that most founders aren't looking to sell tomorrow. They're looking for clarity, optionality, and confidence that what they've built has real, quantifiable value.

$2B+
Transactions executed
$500M+
Capital raised for clients
5+
Years investment banking
30
Days to investor-ready

Every engagement starts with a conversation.

No pressure to sell. No commitment required. Just a confidential discussion about where your business stands and what your options look like.

Discover Your Options →
100% confidential. No obligation.